Download Economic Cycles in Emerging and Advanced Countries: by Antonio Pesce PDF

By Antonio Pesce

​This e-book contributes to the talk at the decoupling of rising economies from the complicated economies with a brand new, empirical research strategy. Taking counterfactual experiments played utilizing a time-varying panel VAR version, the writer argues that over the past thirty years, rising economies became much less prone to shocks spreading from complex economies. This resilience to exterior shocks has replaced in a non-progressive demeanour through the years, with levels of better resilience via others of decrease resilience and vice versa. This learn outlines its wave-like course and offers new effects that give a contribution to the discussion.

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Additional info for Economic Cycles in Emerging and Advanced Countries: Synchronization, International Spillovers and the Decoupling Hypothesis

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3, panel 2). Information about production opportunities in foreign countries has become easier to obtain thanks, for example, to the greater availability of information through the Internet (world wild web), or for example promoted by immigrants8 and multinational companies facilitating networking (see Kohn 2008). These factors may have supported the expansion of trade in manufactured goods. 4 from panel 1 to 6 shows the composition of trade by group of countries from 1960 to 2007. In particular, while the average share of advanced economies’ exports accounted for by manufacturing exports rose slightly and remained the highest in the full sample period (see panel 1), for both emerging economies and developing economies the share of manufacturing exports rose strongly and, for example, became the most important part of exports (see panels 2 and 3).

56Þ he computed the quantity gi ðtÞ used in Eq. 2). The author concluded that there has been no decoupling in recent years because the average degree of business cycle synchronization between the economic cycles of the 30 emerging markets and the economic cycles of the 26 advanced countries has increased during the last decade. This result was robust both in relation to the different filters applied to extract the trend from the original time series and to the different grouping of emerging economies (Asian, Latin American and Eastern European emerging countries).

6, eventually due to changes in the nature of country-specific and global shocks, for example) in addition to changes in the structural linkages between the two countries ( βi j in Eq. 6) which indeed is what really matter in studying the decoupling phenomenon. Forbes and Rigobon (2002) proposed applying a correction to the correlation coefficients to take into account any changes in volatility from one period to another. Suppose we are interested in comparing the synchronicity of output growth rates between country i and j across two sub-samples, and suppose that the ð1Þ correlation coefficients obtained for the two sub-samples are respectively ρi j for ð2Þ the subsample 1 and ρi j for the subsample 2.

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