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By Richard E. Baldwin, Joseph F. Francois

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A time-trend test (augmented Dickey±Fuller test) con®rmed that the US growth rates are well described by a process of constant mean and very little persistence. S. experience since 26 Joseph F. Francois, HaÊkan NordstroÈm, and Clinton R. Shiells 1880 has had a large, persistent effect on growth rates, or whatever persistent effects have occurred have miraculously been offsetting' (1995: 519). Finally, he investigated whether the strong positive trend of investment/ GDP ratios for many OECD countries has had any persistent effect on growth rates, which would be the case if the simple AK model, associated with Romer (1987) and Rebelo (1987), held true.

Given the inherent problem of classifying multidimensional trade regimes with a single index, some authors have used actual trade ¯ows as a proxy for trade orientation. The assumption is that more open economies experience faster export growth than less open ones. In a second stage, real GDP growth is correlated with export growth, and a positive correlation indicates that open economies experience more rapid average rates of economic growth than closed economies. Following this approach, Michaely (1977) and Feder (1983), for instance, have found positive correlations between exports and growth.

5. The data for 1986±92 are from IMF (1993), Chapter VI. 6. However, there is some evidence, based on a broader set of countries, that suggests that the trade±growth link may be stronger for medium-income countries than for low-income countries (see, for instance, Michaely (1977) and Ram (1985)). Nevertheless, the stronger link found for medium-income countries might simply re¯ect a more consistent set of economic policies in medium-income countries, and not an inherently stronger trade±growth linkage.

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