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By J. O. N. Perkins (auth.)

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Source: Derived from Wallis and Whitley (1991). 13 that changes in employment in the public sector and in state investment in Belgium were found in this simulation to have the greatest effect on real GDP, followed by social security transfers, while changes in personal income tax and in VAT had appreciably less effect than any of those, but appreciably more than cuts in employers' social security contributions. 2), which related to non-wage government expenditures, if these have appreciably less effect on real GDP than government expenditure on employment or public investment; especially as the effect of social security transfers to households (presumably the main non-wage government expenditure, and therefore closest of the items in this table to the outlay item used in the OECD simulation - non-wage government expenditures) is less than either of the other government outlays simulated here.

On the other hand, if the more expansionary of the two (for a given effect on the budget deficit) is the more inflationary for a given real stimulus, the government will have to take into account the relative effects on the budget balance (if it is concerned to keep this down) as well as the relative effects of the two instruments on inflation for a given real stimulus. If it is more concerned to hold down inflation (while providing a stimulus) it may then reasonably provide the stimulus in the least inflationary way, even if this involves a bigger rise (or smaller fall) in the budget deficit.

29) Source: Derived from Dramais (1986). 6, however, that over the first year, or the first two years, government investment or consumption (the two not being differentiated in this simulation) has a markedly greater effect on real GDP than any of the forms of tax cut. Over the whole five years, however, the effects of changes in the first two forms of taxation exceed those of a rise 27 Effects on Real Output in government consumption, the effects of which start to decline much more sharply than those of tax changes from year three onwards.

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