By Nicos Christodoulakis
This booklet presents a quantitative framework for the research of clash dynamics and for estimating the industrial bills linked to civil wars. the writer develops changed Lotka-Volterra equations to version clash dynamics, to yield lifelike representations of conflict techniques, and to permit us to evaluate lengthy clash traps. the industrial expenses of civil wars are evaluated with the aid of substitute tools: to start with, the writer employs a creation functionality to figure out how the destruction of human and actual capital shares undermines fiscal progress within the medium time period. Secondly, he develops an artificial regulate technique, the place the fee is bought because the divergence of tangible fiscal job from a hypothetical direction within the absence of civil conflict. the variation among the 2 ways provides a sign of the adversarial externalities impinging upon the economic system within the type of institutional destruction. by utilizing specific time-series relating to conflict casualties, neighborhood socio-economic signs, and capital inventory destruction through the Greek Civil conflict (1946-1949), a full-scale program of the above framework is gifted and discussed.
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Extra info for An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949
Sample text
E. p1(0, x2) >0 and similarly for p2. In this case, winning probabilities are described by the functions: p1 ¼ emx1 emx2 , p2 ¼ mx mx þe 2 e 1 þ emx2 emx1 ð3:5Þ Another formulation can be adopted for the possibility of a stalemate. In describing a conflict, Konrad and Skarpedas (1998) consider a general function form of the kind: p1 ¼ f 1 ðx 1 Þ f 2 ðx 2 Þ , p2 ¼ f 1 ðx1 Þ þ f 2 ðx2 Þ þ f 0 f 1 ðx 1 Þ þ f 2 ðx 2 Þ þ f 0 ð3:6Þ where fj(xj) is the “effectiveness function” as before, and f0 is a constant.
Each side chooses the battle effort to maximize a discounted sum of intertemporal battle objectives. The system is found to have unique saddle-path equilibrium, and its properties are shown to be in line with some stylized facts observed in civil wars. Applications are displayed by using data from conflicts worldwide, as well as from the Greek civil war. Chapter 8 examines the effects of a civil war on the country’s output. First, an endogenous growth model is set up to show how a civil war leads to a higher allocation of public revenues towards the protection of property rights and also to higher taxation, thus lowering economic prospects.
3 The Escalation of Conflict 21 350 million US Dollars 300 Funds and Costs Greek Military Aid Program 250 200 150 100 US appropriaƟons 50 US & UK AID Jun 1948 May 1948 Apr 1948 Mar 1948 Jan 1948 Feb 1948 Dec 1947 Oct 1947 Nov 1947 Sep 1947 Aug 1947 Jul 1947 Jun 1947 Apr 1947 May 1947 Mar 1947 Jan 1947 Feb 1947 0 Fig. 3 The costs of military aid delivered to Greece for GNA. Source: JUSMAGG 1949. Diagram funds and costs, greek military aid program, ground and air In 1948, the GNA went further up to 132,000 men, while military shipments from the US were multiplied; see Fig.