By P. Arestis, G. Zezza
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Extra resources for Advances in Monetary Policy and Macroeconomics
Both need the package RATS to be run. All the results are available upon request. 9 This specification’s ‘flexibility allows not only the statistical description of a large number of real data sets, but it also allows the embedding of interesting economic hypotheses in a general statistical framework, in which one can define the concepts of interest, … in particular the notions of integration, cointegration and common trends … An economic theory is often formulated as a set of behavioural relations or structural equations between the levels of the variables … If the variables are I(1), that is, non-stationary with stationary differences, it is convenient to reformulate them in terms of levels and differences, such that if a structural relation is modelled by a stationary relation, then we are led to considering stationary relations between levels, that is, cointegrating relations … that capture the economic notion of long-run economic relations …’ ( Johansen, 1995: 4–6).
It is worth noting that the RMSE of other forecasting models is also declining, but somewhat more gradually. 3 points. The difference is similar with the univariate forecast. Quarterly data show the same feature but allow for a richer specification because we can use the 6-VAR. 499 points of the quarterly inflation rate (about 2 points of annual rate) using a random walk. Sub-period analysis provides some interesting results. Whatever the forecast model is, forecast errors become smaller. Results are more precise compared to those with annual data, and several differences between models appear.
12 As Johansen (1995: 49–50) explains: ‘One can interpret matrix C as indicating how the common trends t α⊥ εi i=1 contribute to the various variables through the matrix β⊥ . Another interpretation is that a random shock to the first equation, say, at time t = 1, gives rise to short-run random effects as represented by C(L)εt which die out over time, and a long-run effect to the stochastic part given by the first column of C. This is orthogonal to β such that the new position is a new point on the attractor …’.